Survivor 49 — Preseason Power Rankings

Survivor 49, also known as the season before Survivor 50, has snuck up on us and premieres tonight! This is my ninth season (!) of blogging weekly Survivor recaps, and just like in the past I’ve taken a look at the cast bios published about the castaways, and to speculate on who will go far and who will make a fool of themselves.

This year I’m changing up my recap articles to be more streamlined. Instead of hitting on major talking points and superlatives before getting into the power rankings, I’m just gonna give you a more fleshed out power rankings. I think I can say everything I want to say within my analysis of the players within the context of a power rankings post while shortening the time it takes to churn out the blogpost. I’m getting married in a few months and my life has gotten very busy with wedding planning, which means I can’t dedicate the hours I used to towards these recaps. But I still love Survivor and I would hate to take a season off from posting for you all. ♥️

MY SPECULATIVE PRESEASON RANKINGS

Reminder that I am always right about my preseason predictions. Like how Kamilla was my predicted first boot last season… and first boot Stephanie was one of my highest rated players. We like to have fun here.

Also, I thought it would be helpful to post pictures of each player to help you remember their faces heading into the first episode.

Kristina

I don’t think there is such a thing as a Cirie 2.0, other than that Kristina also got off the couch to play Survivor… and Kristina doesn’t quite pop as a savvy game player, opting to be more of the loyal social nerd. I don’t necessarily think she will be a bad player, but I think she will project as an easy early boot if her tribe doesn’t win challenges, being a weaker physical player.

Matt

Being a white man from Utah with dreadlocks will certainly draw out some opinions from the other castaways. If he’s charming, he could fit into a nice alliance and ride the tides of the game well like Ben from 46, or even Gabler. But if he doesn’t make a good first impression I guarantee he will be out of the game after a few days.

Shannon

I’ve never had this much whiplash reading a bio. She goes from “I love to commune with the divine” to “I help out at my family’s bar” to “I remember being in the womb” to “I like going to Boston Bruins games”. Odd people do well in Survivor, but there is such a thing as too weird, and Shannon incredibly egotistical view on life may be a major turn off to other castaways. Though, the fact that she can play both hyper-spiritual guru and typical Bostonian makes me think that if she can chill out at the start of the season she can make a few allies.

Jason

Does he channel his inner Ruth Bader Ginsberg and law down the law liberally against the competition? I’m a little worried he won’t be able to enforce his will on the game if he constantly lives in fear, as he feels more suited for the background than the spotlight. I could see him doing well within an alliance if he gels well in his starting tribe, similar to Matt in Survivor 44. They both give off, as he puts it, “little guy energy”. Also, he needs a haircut.

Sage

She probably calls herself quirky unironically. Either she actually is an interesting gal and she draws in allies that way, or she is just plain annoying and nobody is particularly interested in playing Survivor with her. I’m personally leaning towards the latter, but if she finds her footing through the pre-merge she seems like the type that will be a big impact player.

Jeremiah

I think the name of the game for Jeremiah will be social adaptability… not to stereotype based on first impressions (which is basically this whole article), I’d imagine he’s going to immediately align with the women on his tribe and generally avoid male alliances. If he can get out of his comfort zone (like Thomas did last season, until he was tragically idoled out), I think Jeremiah could do well. What makes me less optimistic is his love of astrology and tarot cards… I just think people obsessed with that stuff have some misplaced beliefs.

Sophie (with an E)

There’s always a basic white girl in the cast. Thanks to the two castaways who couldn’t keep their mouths shut pre-gaming at the hotel so Sophie could come in as an alternate and can keep the tradition alive. She’s doing nothing for me, sorry y’all.

Alex

It seems like the goal of Alex is to charm everyone and play the glue guy role as a valuable ally to everyone, as he says in his own bio. Can he do it? Maybe his job in DC will equip him well here, as in a twenty-six day game you can be fake-nice long enough and bank on a good first impression for everyone to view you as necessary. He feels more plucky than charismatic to me, which will get him only so far.

M.C.

M.C. is not doing much for me as she fits the typical female athlete mold. As a new Survivor fan that might put her behind other castaways with a more developed plan for their strategies. She probably does well in the pre-merge and starts to falter in the post-merge, especially if she is painted as a challenge threat.

Jawan

Jawan seems like a really solid dude. Let’s hope on the Survivor dad scale he rates closer to Jesse than Cedrek. Respectfully, his dad energy is more snuggly, which makes me unsure about if he will handle the cutthroat nature of the game well. I hope he succeeds but I’m not sure.

“Annie”

I’m seeing Sue 2.0 here, as a much older contestant who’s a little eccentric who wants to be seen as a serious player, but will act in a way that causes many of her tribemates to demote her as a goat. Maybe Annie plays things differently as someone more interested in being a social-focused player instead of wanting to frame her game as strategy-focused like Sue (please Annie, don’t make lying about your age a #BIGMOVE), but I think, respectfully, she’s too weird to be taken seriously. I see someone who lasts awhile in the game while being a longshot to win.

Jake

The only Season 48 mention in this season’s bios comes from Jake, who basically seems like Canadian Joe. Buff former athlete dad (soon-to-be in Jake’s case) with an emotional side? Seems Jeff is missing his new favorite boy toy and is looking for a replacement. On Jake’s side is his strong Canadian accent and his past as a… male stripper? Maybe he does well if takes himself less seriously than Joe did, and the accent will do him favors.

Nicole

I think Nicole could put goofy lesbians back on the map in the Survivor universe. Not to do the lesbian-lesbian comparison but she feels like the next Elaine from IOTI. I feel Nicole will have no issue making early friendships that can help her slide through the tribe portion of the game, allowing her to make her mark in the post-merge.

Savannah

The “former” journalist who loves adventure and seemingly travels the world… sounds like a social media influencer to me. She wants to play like a slightly more villainous Dee from my impression of her (especially the video bio), which means she wants to be active in the game. I don’t know what it is, but I feel in my bones that she may return to the game of Survivor in the future, so perhaps she gets things done this season.

Rizo

My first impression of Rizo is that he is a by-the-book gamebot. Smart, self-aware, but likely to tackle the game as logically as possible and will do whatever gimmick the producers want him to do. He might annoy the living heck out of me. He’s also already earned himself the nickname RizGod without even getting through a single episode of the show, which shows me that he might do quite well, perhaps even earn himself a callback? Who could possibly know?

Nate

He seems like a very chill and personable guy, and I think it will serve him very well in the game. As long as he is not a poor physical player, I see no reason why he can’t make the merge and go far

Steven

Another nerd (lots of nerds on Survivor nowadays), but Steven feels like the cool nerd. I mean he’s a rocket scientist for NASA, that’s a cool job. I feel that he is smart enough to navigate the social game well. He compared himself to Charlie and I think that’s an apt comparison based on my first impression.

Sophi (without an E)

Is Sophi the spiritual successor to Genevieve as a hyper-competitive strategic baddie? I’ll believe in it. She seems to be on a mission in her bio, and her video makes her seem more sociable and less killer than Genevieve ended up being. Maybe she learns the lessons and runs the table in Survivor 49.