Survivor 48 Preseason Power Rankings — First Impressions and Wild Speculation

Survivor is back this Wednesday with Season 48! In New Era tradition, I’ve taken a look at the cast photos, subsequent video/interview content published about the castaways, and various trailers and interviews to speculate on who will go far, who will make a fool of themselves, and what twists and turns we might see.

MAKING JUDGEMENTS ON EVERY PLAYER BASED OFF THEIR OFFICIAL CBS CAST BIO IN ONE OR TWO SENTENCES

Charity — We share the same pet peeve… I hate when people play their phones loudly in public

Chrissy — Wait, an older blue-collar contestant? Is Survivor hearing the fans that complain about too many nerdy white-coller superfans in the cast?

David — Wait, an uber athletic non-superfan contestant? Is Survivor hearing the fans that complain about too many nerdy white-coller superfans in the cast?

Kamilla — I literally was like this is another Erika, so it is fitting that she compares her own ideal game to the Survivor 41 winner. But also seems to have some bite to her like Anika from last season.

Kyle — I feel like he’s a smart guy but not slick at all

Mitch — Expecting production to lean heavily into the fact that he has a speech impediment, despite it probably having no effect on his position in the game.

Bianca — Apparently really loves New Jersey. Winner of Survivor 48’s basic white girl award.

Eva — I was not expecting autistic hockey girl in my Survivor 48 cast.

Joe — I could see him being the dad version of “L I V I N” Cody.

Shauhin — High potential for this season’s early burnout… he will either strategize himself off the island or acts so kooky that it becomes endearing for people.

Star — Already has plans for her son (named Siver-Mars, an insane name for a child… no offense) to be on the show? Survivor family legacy?

Thomas — Wanting to play Survivor like Sophie Clarke is an inspired choice.

Cedrick — Nerd. Better make some good butt and poop related jokes as the colorectal surgeon.

Justin — Our resident Ivy Leaguer/vegetarian of the season.

Kevin — He’s giving gamebot.

Mary — Ben the Marine and Survivor 46 Kenzie is a diabolical player combo. I don’t think you could pick two more opposite players to compare yourself to.

Sai — I don’t know, seems like your fairly typical new-era Survivor player.

Stephanie — Doesn’t have a superfan look, but certainly feels like a superfan in her bio.

AFTER CONSUMING INTERVIEW CONTENT WHERE CASTAWAYS SPEAK ABOUT THEMSELVES AND THEIR GAME, HERE’S MY SPECULATIVE PRESEASON RANKINGS

Reminder that I am always right about my preseason predictions. Like how I predicted Rachel and Genevieve to be Survivor 47 pre-merge boots and for Tiyana to be the top player on the season… so laugh at me if I poorly predict your favorite cast members.

Also FYI, I use the Parade interviews and Survivor Instagran Intro videos to judge the cast, if you want to check my sources. They give you a good idea of who these people are before the show starts.

18. Kamilla — As she said in her bio, in her real life she’s used to failure and having nobody listen to her amazing ideas… I think things may turn out the same way for Kamilla in Survivor 48. I think castaways stereotype her as another Erika based on looks and diminutive stature, which immediately puts people on alert with her given Erika won her season. Combine that with lack of physical intangibles, I think Kamilla ends up becoming a sensible first boot in her starting tribe. She also comes off as much younger than her age, which could ostracize her a bit in this “older soul” cast.

17. Kevin — My number one pick for Survivor 48’s early dramatic burnout. Despite coming onto the island trying to play into a ditzy and clueless personality, this tech bro feels like someone who thinks he is a lot smarter and slicker than he actually is. I predict his tribemates see right through the facade he tries to play and send an over-strategizing Kevin home early in embarrassing fashion.

16. Shauhin — This castaway made waves back in the Survivor 46 preseason as an alternate, for his over-the-top behavior trying to woo allies during the pregame hotel stay. He officially gets the invite to Survivor 48 with boom-or-bust expectations. Some people are Shauh-IN, thinking he can dominate the game socially as a leader in Survivor 48. I’m unfortunately Shauh-OUT, thinking he will be quickly singled out as a threatening strategic player without the physical abilities to offer strength in challenges, a la Jon Lovett from last season. I predict Shauhin leaves Survivor 48 with big “What Ifs?” as someone whose potential was never realized.

By the way, I pray that Survivor doesn’t decide to do the whole “I was an alternate” storyline with Shauhin… it is way too meta a storyline and I could not possibly care less about how you basically got onto two Survivor casts.

15. Chrissy — She stands out as a unique blue-collar older castaway and I would love to see Chrissy succeed as an older woman in a way that Sue ultimately failed to do. Sadly I think she is a candidate for an early boot. While it is refreshing that Chrissy comes off as a true old-school player and does not have photographic Survivor memory unlike other players who could name literally every castaway to ever exist, I think the complexity and pace of New Era Survivor overwhelms her and leaves her out of an early alliance.

14. Star — While I think Star will be a straightforward and loyal ally to whoever wants to align with her, she’s gonna need to tone down the energy by about 20–30 decibels if she wants any chance of not annoying the living hell out of her tribemates. While I could tell she was lively and eccentric from her written interview, her intro video blew me away by how much crackhead energy she has. While her physicality will get her by early in the tribal portion of the game, Star needs to show me she can reign the energy in and chill out a bit… or else I think Star gets booted right before the merge as a perceived individual immunity threat.

13. Bianca — While I can see Bianca finding a good alliance and pulling off a few big moves, I don’t know if she will find the same success as someone like Caroline did as a socially focused strategist. I also worry Bianca thinks she might be smarter than she is, and could find herself in an Anika-like position where she thinks she has the numbers, but actually doesn’t. I think she will be well-liked as a goofy personality and get some good one-liner confessionals out there.

12. David — The adrenaline junkie is coming into Survivor with a lot of unfounded confidence, bringing to the table giant muscles, raging self-confidence (or as some call it, arrogance), and minimal Survivor knowledge. Two burning questions will need to be answered early about David if he’s gonna be successful: is he going to outwardly act as arrogant as he had in his pregame interview, and is he actually going to thrive in Survivor challenges? Right now I project David as a challenge beast with a self-destructive strategic game, making him a clear and easy target right at the merge.

11. Charity — Our flight attendant is the only person that has truly expressed playing a Tony-like game… can Charity pull it off? While I think she has the brain to strategize well, I don’t think she will thrive socially. The intensity she desires to play the game with will only make her enemies and put her in prime position to be targeted by her own tribemates at the merge as a loose cannon.

10. Justin — Upon first impression, I was feeling really good about the Ivy Leaguer turned pizza chef as a sneaky strategist hiding under an easygoing, chill persona. But after watching his intro video, I ran into a serious problem: I felt like Justin had no aura. He came off not as Fabio like he compares himself too, but more like Carter from Survivor: Philippines. It ruined my high hopes for him. Maybe Justin overcomes my expectations and levels up into a under-the-radar beast, but right now I think his game fades into dopey mediocrity the further along we get into the season.

9. Kyle — On the flip side, Kyle grew on me the more I delved into my preseason evaluations. His pitch as the “best average guy” made a lot of sense to me, and I think he comes into Survivor 48 with strong self-awareness that can get him into a good position in the game right from the start. I still struggle to see Kyle taking control of the game post-merge, but I at least think he can put together a respectably average performance and find himself on the jury.

8. Eva — As with Mitch and his speech impediment, Eva also makes history as the first autistic Survivor castaway to appear on the show. While her self-professed inability to detect a lie makes me worried for her strategic success, especially in the post-merge, her competitive drive and passion for the game gives me a good feeling that Eva can make it far in a solid alliance. Even if she is the youngest castaway on the season by a number of years, I could see her youth being propped up by older castaways wanting to bring her under their wing.

7. Mitch — I feel really good about Mitch’s success in the game because he comes off initially as one of the friendliest and most genuine people on the season. Even if his stutter gets in the way of the strategizing he desires, I think the Survivor 48 cast will be more than happy to work with him through the first two-thirds of the game. I could see Mitch being a popular ally early and then emerging as more of a target later in the game as people jockey for the final three and worry that Mitch rises to the top as a jury threat.

6. Sai — Drawing a lot of inspiration from Drea’s game in Survivor 42, I could see Sai having better success than her own Survivor comparison. She came off as someone who has a good head on her shoulders, and I am encouraged by her commitment to being herself while having a desire to play the game hard. I would not be surprised if she made a big move or two, but the key to endgame success will be building longer lasting social bonds than Drea ever did.

5. Mary — This is Survivor 48’s peak vibes castaway, and possibly the biggest wildcard of the season. I think Mary could be a central ally for a lot of people if her ability to deeply connect with strangers is as vibrant as she says it is. She could follow the path of Survivor 46’s Kenzie and be an ally to everyone but a threat to no one. However, Mary also insists she will play to the beat of her own drum, which could end up flying in the face of what her allies want to do… could she turn into someone with no pulse on the game like Survivor 44’s Jaime, or even a ditzy strategic afterthought like Survivor 46’s Liz? I’m excited to find out.

4. Thomas — Look, this man is IN THE INDUSTRY. If he can start well on day one, I think he is going to be a key player in how the season develops, likely having the avarice to lead an important blindside or two. He’s also not afraid to get into the drama of Survivor, which will help him stand out as a personality. I also think he has his ideal starting tribe — he mentioned in his interviews that he wants to play the game with a “true number one” and a “muscly guy as a shield”. I think Bianca and Thomas seem like a perfect match for a Survivor duo and Joe would fit his criteria as the muscular ally. While he might burn out at the very end of the game as a threat, I feel Thomas can be a subtly dominant glue guy early in the game.

3. Cedrek — The colorectal surgeon is my Survivor dark horse for the 48th season, and it’s gonna bite the other castaways in the butt if they underestimate him. I got the impression from Cedrek that he was not only a smart Survivor strategist, but also a very aware player… smart and aware is the perfect combination of traits for a strong Survivor showing. I think he will navigate the social game very well and will set himself up for a fantastic path to the final three. The one big worry is that if his starting tribe doesn’t win immunities, he could be voted out early as a physically weaker player.

2. Stephanie — The “mother” energy is high with Stephanie, and I think her quiet alpha approach and intense preparation for the game will result in a ton of success. There’s a burning intensity with how she discussed her Survivor opportunity that I can’t imagine flaming out anytime early in the season. The hippie teacher persona will definitely be able to hide her the corporate city girl that she really identifies with. I think Stephanie will be in the center of the late game of Survivor 48 and will emerge as a major contender for the sole Survivor title.

1. Joe — I wanted to play it safe with the number one spot in my preseason rankings — who in the cast combined competency, intensity, and loyalty? I landed on firefighter Joe, who’s looking to play into the dad persona and be the most approachable player on the beach on his quest for a million dollars in the shadow of his sister. I can’t imagine Joe walking onto the beach and not being able to find a good alliance, and once the merge hits I think he adopts the Alli-Gabler strategy of riding on social bonds over big moves to get to the end. At best, Joe is a better version of Hoboken Mike from Survivor 42, another firefighter who dominated the social game but lacked the awareness to own his duplicitous moves. I don’t imagine Joe falling into the same traps as Mike.

FIVE HOT TAKES ON WHAT TO EXPECT FROM SEASON 48

Time for some predictions and feelings I have coming out of the Survivor preseason in more of a big picture, meta way.

1. Having an OLDER CAST will NOT make Survivor 48 feel different or unique to other New Era seasons

A lot of the immediate reaction to the revealed Survivor 48 cast has revolved around the seemingly purposeful decision to skew the age of the season older than normal. Only ONE castaway in the entire season is under the age of 28 — Eva at 24. Ironically, 27/28 is the cut line between millennials and Gen Z, so it seems Survivor was dead set on casting only millennials on this season of the show. So maybe themes are back… tune into Survivor: Millennial Mayhem! Does this mean we should expect a different tone to the season? A more mature and refined approach to Survivor? Flatly, I think not. I think the stars just aligned to where in this specific season, the type of castaways they normally want to cast just happened to be on the older side rather than the younger side.

2. Be ready for a few early-season FLAMEOUTS… again

A new trend has emerged in the last three seasons where a few castaways will start off the season with a horrific first step. Some will recover, like Emily and Andy. Some will quickly be shown the door, like Jelinsky, Brandon, and Hannah. And some will overstay their welcome, like Bhanu and Rome. But at this point I think it is a given that at least one castaway will find a way to completely poop the bed by the time the season premiere ends. I’d offer that Survivor specifically picks a castaway or two that they think could do very poorly. It’s a nice contingency plan to avoid having a boring pre-merge, killing the momentum of the season from the start.

3. Playing the MIDDLE is OUT for Survivor 48

More and more I see castaways in these pre-game bios talking about how their charming social game will be their biggest strength, and how they will be able to play off so many different castaways with how gosh-darn likable and personable they are and hide under-the-radar all season. I feel that Survivor 48 will expose people who think they can be the shifty social butterflies, and will reward the up-front strategists. Survivor 47 started the trend with its top players (Genevieve, Rachel, Andy) foregoing an under-the-radar game of appeasing personalities, instead forging their paths by choosing sides and making stronger strategic gambits. I think to win Survivor 48, you are gonna have to choose a side.

The season fresh on the minds of our castaways is Survivor 46, where Kenzie won by playing the social middle, which makes me think castaways will be more wary of Survivor floaters. On top of that, multiple castaways had expressed more interest in playing with an alliance a la the Reba Four of Survivor 45.

4. Survivor 48 leans back into FLASHBACKS this season

In the past two seasons, Survivor started to back away from a reliance on backstory/sob stories, letting the gameplay do the talking, which I think in general is a good thing. There was a moment in Survivor 47, however, where I began to miss the backstory and flashback, because there was a point in the midseason where I felt we were missing a lot of character development… thankfully the dramatic moves in the final few episodes saved the season from becoming a bore. In Survivor 48, with older castaways with developed lives and stories on top of a few castaways with particularly poignant stories (Mitch, Eva, Joe, Justin, etc.), I could see the show leaning back into the flashbacks and more inspirational storylines to flesh out their castaway’s personalities. If done tastefully, I think it could help the season… if done heavy-handedly, then I might roll my eyes a bit. But no matter the execution, I don’t think the show will sideline telling of the stories of their castaways this time around.

5. SURVIVOR 50 will be on the minds of EVERYONE — castaways and fans alike

When Survivor 48 was filmed in May/June of last year, Survivor 50 had been initially announced as an all-returner season maybe a month before. I am certain that the most hungry Survivor 48 superfans have this in the back of their mind with every move they make… why play a safe, quiet game if playing an aggressive, loud game successfully could get you consideration for one of the biggest seasons in the show’s history? I am certain castaways will be looking to make their biggest mark possible… and alternatively make the most noise possible. Will there be a castaways or two that tries to be as over-the-top as possible to steal screen time in hopes of a callback? Yes, I can guarantee it, and it will annoy me.

But now, Survivor has announced that the fans will get to vote every week on the format of Survivor 50, putting the power of the season into the hands of the viewers like never before. And we’re voting on serious things — week one involves the abolishment of the firemaking final four, a big part of the format since its introduction in Survivor: Heroes v Healers v Hustlers. I imagine down the line even bigger things will be voted on: idols or no idols, number of starting tribes, final three or two, maybe even who ends up on the cast. If Survivor 48 lulls at any point, talking points about Survivor 50 votes might dominate the online conversation post-episode, instead of the actual Survivor being played… and the hype leading up to Survivor 50 could reach astronomical heights.

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New season starts this Wednesday! The winter break has me refueled for more Survivor as we inch closer and closer to season fifty! Expect recaps for each episode on my page every week, as I’ve done for every New Era season.