Survivor 48 — Episode 4 Reaction
Another episode of Survivor 48 is in the books! Two castaways make the best of a bad situation and pull off an impressive blindside. Let’s dive in!
Sai Makes Peace with an Enemy, Makes an Enemy of a Friend
The original Vula tribe escaped Survivor purgatory this week with a tribe swap, but not without their chaos causer continuing to find ways to insert herself into Survivor 48.
A temporary ceasefire was first called between Mary and Sai. The long and tense relationship between the two women seems to be in a place of begrudging respect. I imagine Sai’s propensity for strong women has softened her heart to Mary and her gritty gameplay to survive these last two votes. On the other hand, Sai’s respect for Cedrek has dwindled to the point where she no longer considers him worthy of trust. This feels like your typical Sai spiral, but predictable given Cedrek had either manipulated her or voted against her in the past two episodes. Sai’s trust issues could end up being the death of her if she forsakes certain alliances in the name of “he/she voted against me”.
Cedrek did not offer much of an explanation for why he chose Sai over Pizza, which makes me think his choice to keep Sai was emotionally driven. He felt worse about sending Sai home compared to Pizza, and he hoped that the result of his decision would solidify his alliance with Sai. While his move did not do enough to win Sai over, the tribe swap has given Cedrek a lifeline. Cedrek’s new alliance with Mitch feels much stronger, mainly because Mitch plays loyal and “sane” Survivor compared to Sai. As long as Mitch and Chrissy stick together, Cedrek becomes the important third vote to ensure a majority. Meanwhile, Sai gravitated towards Bianca, whom she does not know is voteless, which will neuter Sai’s ability to find control of her tribe in the way she desires.
Original Lagi Quietly Loses the Tribe Swap
Central to this past episode was a tribe swap that mixed up the tribes and changed the fortunes for a healthy chunk of tribemates. The swap certainly jumbled up the tribes, as none of the three groups consisted of a clear majority other than new Vula; but even then, 3 Lagi v 2 Civa leaves room for a flipper among the majority, not to mention the minority Civa duo of Kyle and Kamilla had a war chest of advantages. But one thing became clear once the dust settled: the original Lagi tribe came out the worst of all the original tribes.
New Civa consisted of Chrissy, Mitch, Cedrek, Sai, and Bianca. Bianca is the only one on her new tribe from Lagi, and she has no vote. While Mitch and Chrissy were not allies on the original Civa, they came to the conclusion that sticking with the “tribe strong” mentality and eliminating anyone from Lagi was the best plan of attack. With the recruitment of Cedrek, Bianca feels screwed if new Civa goes to tribal council.
New Lagi consisted of David, Eva, Charity, Star, and Mary, and within minutes Eva had completely thrown Star under the bus, sacrificing her original tribemate upon the altar and spilling all the details about Star’s idol… or in this case, lack of idol and vote. This could have not gone worse for anyone on old Lagi that wanted to put up a unified front at the merge. It is likely that the remaining castaways of new Lagi will jump on this opportunity unless David, who has accrued a lot of new allies in this swap, decides to turn the numbers against Charity.
Vula Curse Continues, Vula Blindsides Continue
New Vula consisted of Joe, Thomas, Shauhin, Kyle and Kamilla, and they felt confident that they would give Vula its first win based on the physical strength they possessed. However, Survivor challenges include puzzles and Vula stumbled on the final leg of the immunity challenge and went back to tribal council with some bruised egos. The California Girls alliance from Lagi felt confident that they controlled the vote. It’s a strong trio against two former Civa castaways. Kyle and Kamilla instead put together a masterclass in how to deceive the majority and use a hidden immunity idol.
From the second new Vula hit the beach Kyle and Kamilla were in game mode. The two of them put up a front that they were not aligned or even close to each other, and the Lagi men bought the act hook, line, and sinker. Kamilla acted like she would have been the first boot on original Civa, and Kyle played along with the strategy and affirmed her false fears. So when the challenge was lost and the scramble began, the Lagi three assumed that Kyle and Kamilla would fall in line with the majority and vote against each other. The reality is that Kyle and Kamilla were sussing out which way the California Girls would vote so they can use Kyle’s idol, and they guessed correctly. Because Kamilla observed Shauhin and Thomas looking through Kyle’s bag for an advantage, they correctly determined that Kyle was getting the votes.
The duo kept the facade up to and even through the reading of the votes. Kyle plays his idol under the guise of saving his butt (which he was) but all the legwork he and Kamilla had done made this play much easier. Because Kyle made this play look like it was just his own gamble, Kamilla and him could continue the at-odds facade in this 2v2 tribe… but with Kamilla’s extra vote, the Civa duo has complete say in who goes home next.
For who would be blindsided, Kyle and Kamilla debated between Shauhin and Thomas and ultimately chose to vote out Thomas. While they saw both players as untrustworthy, it was the fact that Thomas went on a journey and potentially lied about getting an advantage. In a surprising reveal, Kamilla shares information that she got from Star at the sit out bench of an earlier challenge. They discussed the journey and Kamilla learns that Mitch’s honest recollection of his experience is very different from what Thomas had shared to Lagi about his journey. Thomas said that he had opted out of risking his vote, but Mitch (and Kamilla on her own journey) had been forced to risk their vote and play the game. She tells Joe and Shauhin and they confront Thomas, but Thomas sticks with his lie. This ambiguity about what Thomas had done on this journey made him a more immediate threat to thwart their future plans over Shauhin, who just feels like your typical shifty Survivor player.
Thomas had a lot of potential as a frontrunner to win the season but he failed to live up to his own words, because he was not “ready for any curveball that comes your way”. Then again, this was a Clayton Kershaw level curveball and may have been too hard to hit. The tribe swap felt like the perfect scenario for a California Girls alliance that could all trust each other, but they just happened to swap with the strongest duo on Civa committed to an airtight game plan and a bag of tricks to play with. How could Thomas have known Kyle had an idol, and with only five people in the tribe a vote split did not offer increased chances to combat against the possibility. The only way Thomas saves himself I think is with a vote steal AND a split vote, which would guarantee a tied vote if they guess wrong on who plays the idol, which gets into complex Survivor rule semantics (because I’m not even sure you can play an idol if your vote is stolen… we haven’t seen that vote interaction happen yet to my knowledge).
The reality is that Thomas was not thinking about using his advantage at all because he committed to keeping that advantage secret and for later use, and because Kyle and Kamilla did an expert job of making Lagi feel falsely comfortable. Sometimes you just have to give credit where it’s due. It was an expert plan executed to perfection by Kyle and Kamilla, and someone had to be the victim.
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Biggest Ally to Women: David
Turns out buff stunt guy David was able to turn on the charm and ingratiate himself into his all-women tribe. He got an audible awwwwww from his tribemates when he shared about how he wants to win the game to win back his girlfriend. What a chivalrous man!
Worst Camp: Vula
Former Vula arrived at their new camps and it felt like they stepped onto a resort. New Vula steps into their new camp and sees randomly stacked bamboo and a litany of flies buzzing around. What a downgrade.
Most Obvious Survivor 48 Ship: Kyle and Kamilla
What is the relationship status of these two people? Am I just wishing they would kiss already? Their great chemistry as a strategic duo makes the romantic in me hope for some sparks later on…
MVP of the Episode: Kamilla
I was more impressed with Kamilla’s part of the idol plan than Kyle’s. She led the charge of the at-odds Civa strategy and was the one that Thomas and Shauhin felt comfortable enough to search Kyle’s bag in front of. I thought if Kamilla could respond well in this swap she’s a candidate for a deep Survivor run, and she did exactly that.
Goat of the Episode: Bianca
There probably is no worse feeling than being put into a new tribe, completely isolated and have no vote. Even worse, her clear number one ally just got voted out. Bianca’s game is slowly rolling off a cliff… much out of her control.
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PLAYER TIER LIST:
OUT OF THE GAME
18. Stephanie
17. Kevin
16. Pizza
15. Thomas
BOTTOM OF THE TOTEM POLE
14. Bianca
13. Star
Beware Advantage Star is an easy vote for her tribe, especially since Eva served her up on a silver platter.
12. Shauhin
Since Kyle and Kamilla discussed voting him out this episode, he seems to be next to go if Vula heads to yet another tribal council.
11. Charity
It feels like underestimating David is going to be the death of Charity… whether that is imminent or down the line is yet to be determined.
IN AN UNCOMFORTABLE POSITION
10. Sai
9. Cedrek
Even after a tribe swap I don’t trust Sai to just hang out safely in the majority… she will probably do something extra or stupid. The thing is, Sai has gotten this far already so if she gets her way yet again… it will probably result in betraying Cedrek.
IN A GOOD SPOT
8. Eva
7. Joe
I think Eva and Joe are going to make the merge, though probably not in a position to make power moves. Eva connecting with David was important for her, and Joe’s honest guy schtick put him in the position of safest and least threatening amongst the California Girls.
6. Mary
She is set up to start playing the social game she wants to play before the merge. Other people are higher priority targets on New Lagi which can help her make new alliances.
5. Chrissy
4. Mitch
Power in New Civa stays in the hands of Old Civa members Mitch and Chrissy, as long as they can hold the majority with the original Vula castaways.
IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT
3. David
He’s made some great new allies on New Lagi and will be instrumental on the tribe for these challenges as their strongman. His personality also makes people trust him as a tribe-camaraderie guy, which will only benefit him as people like Charity are underestimating his strategy.
2. Kamilla
1. Kyle
The two best resumes in the game are from this Civa duo, and they can easily bring back together a Civa post merge alliance to keep themselves protected. They are basically tied for first.