Survivor 48 — Episode 3 Reaction
Another episode of Survivor 48 is in the books! An insane tribal council birthed our next New Era legend. Let’s dive in!
Mary has an All-Time Heat Check Episode
Let’s just take a moment to applaud Mary’s role in turning this episode of Survivor 48 into what is going to be one of the best episodes of the season. Even before the result of the explosive tribal council, Mary brought exactly the attitude that endears you to an underdog. She scrambled to the best of her ability, looking for the idol and making Sai chase her around in what feels like the start of an exciting enemies-to-allies storyline. When searching for the idol fails, Mary adopts a new strategy: play it cool and confident, and make Sai go crazy.
It works exactly as intended as Sai’s paranoia surged by the simple act of Mary taking a solo swim in the ocean after the challenge. Sai worries that Mary might have the idol and she wants to split the vote against Justin. Cedrek tries to talk Sai down, considering a split vote to be an overreaction against Mary and risky with so few people. It doesn’t really land at first with Sai given that it is her butt on the line against Mary and she no longer trusts the boys, pointing at how she burned her idol on a faulty word from Cedrek and Justin. Sai then tries to get a read on Mary but cannot comprehend why Mary would not be looking for an idol unless she has it… or if she is using her Shot in the Dark which could leave Sai vulnerable to the boys! It seems that Sai’s move was unknown to her allies right up to tribal council, given Cedrek warns Justin that Sai might burn a vote against him… but Cedrek is ultimately not worried because his vote and Justin’s vote can ensure Mary goes home… little did he know.
Mary stuck to her bluffing confidence plan to the end. Mary plays up her situation at the bottom during tribal council and stays resolved in the face of Sai’s pressure, agreeing to respect but oppose each other to the bitter end. And Sai does reign herself in and vote against Mary rather than burn her vote against Justin. But good luck smiled upon the one who needed it. Mary opts to play Shot in the Dark and it saves her! All the votes that would have sent her home are negated and Vula’s third tribal council enters explosive territory.
An Unprecedented Tribal Council ends in a Cedrek’s Choice Situation
The vote goes off the rails after the SITD reveal. All votes are on Mary… but there is one vote missing! Upon revote only two votes are read: one for Sai and one for Justin. At this point Jeff must confirm that Justin had lost his vote, and on the next revote only Sai and Cedrek vote… normally Sai would not vote in a revote but because Justin has no vote, they won’t negate each other — a new Survivor situation.
Justin had decided to lie about what happened on his journey, fashioning a wobbly lie about trying to earn camp supplies that would fall apart the next day, but in Justin’s mind all he needed to do was make it through this single vote tonight. The truth was, he was forced to risk his vote in a game of Survivor Yahtzee, and he lost. And when he returned to camp, he chose to withhold this information from Cedrek, critiquing the butt surgeon’s ability to strategize.
Ironically, the person he lied to ended up having his Survivor fate in his hands like the last slice of pizza. In the second revote, neither Sai nor Cedrek changed their vote and it resulted in another tie. Because Mary has no say due to SITD and Sai and Justin are involved in the tie, all power to determine who goes home falls to Cedrek… yet another unprecedented tribal council situation. While revotes have deadlocked and led to tribes needing to make unanimous decisions, those times there were groups of people having final say (think Survivor 42, when Jenny was sent home) to avoid drawing rocks. Never has there been a situation where one castaway had to make the on-the-spot decision to extinguish someone’s game like Cedrek did.
Only a small part of the discussion was shown but I can imagine how it went: Sai aggressively begged and pleaded for Cedrek’s mercy, probably for a long time. Justin said a few words, but mainly banked on Sai’s chaotic gameplay and paranoid rambling over the past week to sink her, and that Cedrek would not change the vote he had made to send Sai home tonight two times before. But the fervor and passion of Sai’s begging must have struck the right nerve, because Cedrek changed his mind and kept Sai on the condition that her and Mary would chill out and make amends. Justin is sent home, despite Cedrek saying Justin was his original alliance.
Was this a smart or stupid decision from Cedrek? If Sai continues to be the same Sai, then it is a stupid decision. Given Sai’s actions against Mary, you could make the assumption she would have a vendetta against Cedrek for voting against her… even if he saved Sai at the end of the day! Sai had already mentioned that she did not trust Cedrek because of the idol situation, so why would she start inserting emotions into her decision-making when she has insisted that she is playing the game purely strategical? What Cedrek is betting on is that this move he makes builds an ultimate bond of loyalty. In this line of thinking, Sai owes her game to Cedrek now and her chaos will be used to benefit him from now on.
Ultimately I think this is a purely emotional move from Cedrek and strategy took a backseat. Cedrek cares for Sai enough as a person that he could not bring himself to look her in the eyes and send her home. He could do that to Justin.
Survivor 48 Starts for Every Castaway Next Week
All signs in the preview point to a tribe swap coming at the start of the next episode. That means after one week of watching Vula die, now Lagi and Civa have to put their relationships to the test. Someone new is guaranteed to visit tribal council this upcoming Wednesday. How the tribes split dictate the next few votes to the merge. Will a lopsided swap leave a sole Lagi or Civa member on their own and incredibly vulnerable? Will the budding but untested alliances from original tribes hold strong, fall apart, or be ripped apart? I imagine that Lagi vs. Civa will dominate the discussions on all tribes post swap as the fear of a tribe strong sweep at the merge begins to loom over the castaways. This could mean Vula refugees find themselves swing votes in new groups
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Most Questionable Financial Plan: David
I did not expect to get the “David Hates His Life” backstory this week. Apparently he lives in a trailer in front of his dad’s house and he needs to win the million dollars so he can achieve his dream of starting a family and stop his girlfriend from breathing down his neck to get his act together. David used the word “pathetic” to describe his living situation. It was an unexpected layer to add to the egotistic enigma that is David the stunt man. Methinks he should have practiced some more saving habits in his younger days, but I don’t really know the guy so who knows why he finds himself so penniless.
Most Awkward Present: A Bead Bracelet
Not Eva trying to make a sweet gesture to Joe and give him a measly looking bead bracelet for his daughter, only for the rest of her tribe to see that and immediately determine she has to be sent home. As a spectator who has seen inside the Joe and Eva relationship and Eva’s own struggles with how autism affects the social aspect of her game, it was a little hard for me to watch Eva dig herself into a hole and see the rest of her tribe flippantly scheme against her.
Worst Journey: Being Forced to Risk Your Vote
While we must objectively admit that we wouldn’t have gotten this insane tribal council with the journey and Pizza losing his vote, I have to point out the Journey has devolved too much. When it was introduced at the start of the New Era, the Journey allowed for castaways to get to know each other, play the social game, and sus each other out before the Prisoner’s Dilemma, which tested each castaway’s guts with a risky vote decision. Now the Journey consists of castaways saying hi to each other and splitting off to be forced to play not even a game of skill, but a game of luck. Why are we getting away from social skill challenges for random chance gimmicks?
Honestly, bring back the prisoner’s dilemma now. It’s been a long enough break that castaways may not expect it. This dice game challenge was empty calories.
MVP of the Episode: Mary
The first Survivor 50 candidate from the cast. Mary just needs to keep standing on her business and find some momentum strategically to reach the merge and thrive.
Goat of the Episode: Pizza
Look, he couldn’t control losing his vote. But to not tell Cedrek about it? That was a bad move. It exposed how little he trusted Cedrek and I’m sure that factored into his decision to say no to Pizza.
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PLAYER TIER LIST:
OUT OF THE GAME
18. Stephanie
17. Kevin
16. Pizza
BOTTOM OF THE TOTEM POLE
15. Eva
If Joe and Eva are split onto separate tribes I am feeling unsure about her ability to scramble and make new allies. And if she is swapped with the wrong Lagi tribemates, they might choose now is the time to blindside her. Her poor gameplay dealing with Star this week did not make me confident in her long term prospects. She really needs Joe to carry her through these next few votes.
IN AN UNCOMFORTABLE POSITION
14. Cedrek
13. Sai
12. Mary
Let’s see how Vula lands in the tribe swap. This could be a great thing for them given Survivor history… think of the horrendous Brain tribe in Cagayan that benefited greatly from a tribe swap and all made deep runs into the game. Think of Denise and Malcolm, the refugees of the trainwreck Matsing tribe that became hot alliance commodities when inserted into a different tribe. Whether together or apart, a tribe swap could bring new life to their game… as long as they don’t get seen as easy votes for Lagi and Civa to safely reach the merge. I need to see the trio make new alliances before I feel good about their long term prospects.
11. Bianca
She could not have lost her vote at a worse time.
10. Star
I need Star to prove it still. She hasn’t solved her cipher and has only one weak alliance with Thomas and Bianca to show for an entire week of Survivor. A tribe swap, however, is great for Star and gives her a second chance to make an alliance with different people than her OG Lagi members.
9. Chrissy
Zero screen time Chrissy… if swapped on a bad tribe she could be an easy vote given her age. And I don’t feel good about her lack of importance in the edit so far this season.
8. Charity
7. Mitch
All the time in safety on Civa has been greatly beneficial to Charity and Mitch. This duo would have been voted out early if they lost a challenge given the poor start Charity got off to socially in her tribe, but time has been a healer and they now have started a potential alliance with David and Kyle. They aren’t safe yet, but a good tribe swap could make for an ideal situation to build trust with old and new allies.
IN A GOOD SPOT
6. Kamilla
I’m really worried that if Kamilla gets a bad swap she becomes super vulnerable… other than her alliance with Kyle I don’t have a good feel for how prioritized she is as an ally. But if she responds well to this tribe swap, I feel a lot more comfortable predicting a deep run for what seems like a solid Survivor player.
5. Shauhin
4. Joe
3. David
If these guys swap on a tribe that loses the next challenge, I think their challenge strength will keep them around over shadier and weaker castaways. They also have good alliances within their respective tribes so they are likely to have a few friends on their side however the swap turns out.
Also… yes, I’ve noticed that my top five in my power rankings are all men… it’s a reflection of how I feel Lagi and Civa have strategically been male dominated so far. Things are sure to change come the merge when the challenge beasts become priority targets to vote out.
IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT
2. Kyle
1. Thomas
Both Kyle and Thomas have options for alliances and advantages in hand. They can take control of their swapped tribes if they play their cards right.