Survivor 48 — Episode 11 Reaction
Another episode of Survivor 48 is in the books! The expected outcome happened as one castaway can’t change their fate. Let’s dive in!
Survivor Tried to Save this Episode, but Eva Said No
This is a major blow to the “Survivor is rigged” conspiracy theorists. Like I predicted, Survivor tried to introduce the Knowledge is Power advantage to the game through a journey, as it would be an incredibly easy way to flip the game on its head given that Eva’s idol is known to the entire tribe. A life or death challenge to win a key advantage would have made for a suspenseful journey… except the worst possible person to win the chance for a journey won a random rock draw.
The final seven journey has become a regular occurrence in this New Era format, and given the stakes of the game no one wanted to give Mary the chance to win a big advantage. Therefore the tribe opts into a rock draw, and of course Eva pulls the important rock. The one woman who has been gifted all the advantages this season gets yet another gift. Eva just had to not miserable fail the tile stacking minigame to preserve her vote, which she did with relative ease.
It’s a very unlucky turn of events. Survivor tried to inject some life into the season but it failed miserably. I feel comfortable saying this post-merge has been the worst of the New Era and leaves us dragging our way to the finale. It will take something extraordinary to keep Survivor 48 from being the most forgettable New Era season of Survivor.
Mary’s Impossible Fight
The vote centered around if the minority three was going to be able to convince either Shauhin or Kyle to vote out Joe, but eventually became a requiem for Mary, who had lost all goodwill with the rest of her tribe and led to a unanimous exit for the perennial underdog. You can’t fault Mary for trying; she made pitches to just about everyone to vote out Joe, but to the people that mattered, they did not bite at the offer. Kamilla and Mitch were obviously on board as castaways outside of the power majority, though there’s a bit of irony to Mitch saying “We have to do something!” when just hours ago he opted to do absolutely nothing. It came down to whether Shauhin and Kyle were willing to change jerseys and turn against Joe and Eva.
For Kyle it was an emotional matter to turn against his kinship with Joe, so he politely turned down Mary’s offer. While he sees the value of betraying Joe, ultimately he doesn’t trust Mary and won’t risk his game and a real relationship with him to give Mary an opening to sneak to the final three and win the million dollars. However, Kyle showed a deeper willingness to diverge from the status quo of the Strong Four in favor of his secret alliance with Kamilla. Before the vote, Kyle reaffirmed his duo status with Kamilla by revealing the lawyer status he’s kept secret to everyone all season. A lot of promises were made between Kyle and Kamilla about just trying to get one of them to the final three as a success for the duo, which makes me think they will try to make one last big play once Mary is out of the game, with the assurance that if one of them is sent home as a result, they will champion the other in Final Tribal Council.
On the other end, Shauhin’s reasoning for turning down Mary was strategically motivated. For Shauhin, he’s on his path to victory because at the end of the day, he believes he can make the case to win the jury vote against Joe. Why should Shauhin rock the boat unnecessarily? Joe hasn’t played the middle in the way Shauhin has — so Shauhin believes he will be rewarded for his flexible social game against Joe’s rigid alliance championing. It’s a difficult case to champion from the outside looking in: it seems like Shauhin is willfully overlooking the pleas of the now-jury members that laud Joe’s dominance in the post-merge in favor of his “playing the middle” game that lacks any actual “playing the middle” from him, as he has never diverged from voting with Joe all season. His fear of being in the driver’s seat will most likely result in his loss rather than his win.
Mary is doomed by the end of the episode. Survivor packs on top of the Mary storyline a “coconut etiquette” segment showing the other castaways annoyed at her overeating the food supply at camp. It encapsulates the despair of Mary’s position, as no one even wanted to entertain working with her, even if the strategic proposition of an alliance benefitted them. A half-hearted “villain move”, as Mary described it, did nothing to change her fate and she is promptly sent to the jury. Mary’s Survivor journey is a particularly odd one… Mary somehow survives the disastrous Vula tribe with a miraculous Shot in the Dark play, then moves into an alliance with David. That alliance with David caused all sorts of problems with other castaways that resulted in David being kicked out of the Strong Five/Six/Four with Mary following David shortly afterwards. Mary’s game is ultimately a game gone wrong, consistently on the outskirts of the important social circles of Survivor 48 without ever being able to find a way in.
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Worst at Spelling: Joe
Even though the episode was generally bad, there at least were a few funny moments to keep my attention. One good moment is the challenge, which had a much better pace than last week’s unbearably slow presentation. I think these obstacle course challenges can get repetitive but at least they keep the episode moving. This challenge also benefited from using the word scramble arch puzzle which I think is one of the best challenges they’ve added in recent seasons due it’s difficulty while being fun to watch. Poor Joe had two screw-ups that lost him the challenge — one from spelling “GOT FUN BETRALE” with all the seriousness that he’s right, the other because he had one of the bookend eyes flipped the wrong direction. It’s one thing to lost in heartbreak, it’s another to lose because of outright stupidity
Most Serious (But Also, Most Unserious): David
David’s jury member arc has been more exciting than any of the castaways that are still in the game. He decides to stand up in solidarity with Mary’s exit and the comedy of it is rich, made only funnier by the fact that he probably made the decision to stand primarily for serious reasons. It’s so dumb yet so on-brand for the eclectic biceped David. I unironically love it.
MVP of the Episode: Kamilla
She wins a big challenge against all the “challenge beasts” as the wimpy nerd and then rekindles the original Guyanese brother-sister bond Kyle and her had originally shared on day one for what could be a last-ditch push to spice up Survivor 48.
Goat of the Episode: Joe
Joe continues to worry me with his Survivor philosophy. His “I want to beat the best” mantras harken back all the way to Colby Donaldson refusing to pick Keith for the final tribal council… I worry Joe makes a big mistake down the stretch by ignoring a big threat like Kyle or bending from his philosophy and partaking in a blindside of someone like Shauhin. The “Joe is Paranoid” miniarc before tribal council felt like a setup for the future, where Joe’s paranoia about being target number one may cause him to make a rash decision. Or I could be overreading it and it was just inserted into this episode for faux-uncertainty about the vote.
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PLAYER TIER LIST:
OUT OF THE GAME
18. Stephanie
17. Kevin
16. Pizza
15. Thomas
14. Bianca
13. Charity
12. Sai
11. Cedrek
10. Chrissy
9. David
8. Star
7. Mary
BOTTOM OF THE TOTEM POLE
6. Mitch
The order of the rankings stays the same. Mitch becomes the logical bottom of the tribe and if he survives the next two votes, he most certainly becomes a zero-vote finalist/goat.
IN AN UNCOMFORTABLE POSITION
5. Kamilla
While hope is growing that Kamilla can find an opportunity to break open the strong four with Kyle, until it actually happens I can’t move her up the rankings… her game is still basically at the mercy of the Strong Four and in the hands of Kyle, especially now that Mary and Star are gone.
IN A GOOD SPOT
4. Joe
Joe is only ranked bottom of the Strong Four because he has been a major target for a blindside as the perceived favorite to win Survivor 48. If he gets by the next vote he should shoot up the rankings as a favorite to win… even though I think signs are pointing towards Joe getting a hostile jury that could stop him from winning the million dollars over someone like Kyle or Kamilla.
3. Eva
I think Eva’s continued advantage accumulation combined with her rigid loyalty to the Strong Four as, unfortunately, Joe’s number two makes her an uninspiring jury choice and unlikely candidate to beat out a lot of the other castaways at the FTC. Her easy path to the end has not been a fun watch for anyone, both jury and fan.
2. Shauhin
I generally don’t try to speculate on the “Next On…” segments at the end of episodes to dictate how I think the game will go, because they are meant to be suspenseful and therefore deceptive. But I think the preview of Kyle and Kamilla trying to erode Joe’s trust in Shauhin for a blindside lines up perfectly with how Shauhin’s character has been set up. He’s ripe for a surprising revelation and I think that could come from an unexpected blindside either at final six or final five. Shauhin’s voiced annoyance at Joe’s paranoia over Mary voting for him can easily be used against him by Kyle and Kamilla.
My ideal Survivor 48 endgame is Kyle and Kamilla convincing Joe and Eva into a final four deal that blindsides Shauhin. Then Mitch goes home at final five as the safe vote (and because if Joe or Eva win that immunity, the other can protect themself with Eva’s idol). Final four firemaking then pits one of the duos against each other, and final three consists of at least two interesting candidates to win: a combination of Joe, Kyle, and Kamilla… sorry Eva.
IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT
1. Kyle
Still at the crossroads of the Strong Four alliance and his secret duo with Kamilla. He’s safe to get to the end however he chooses and at the very least he earns himself a jury advocate in Kamilla if they aren’t able to break open the Strong Four with a big blindside.