Survivor 47 Preseason Power Rankings — First Impressions and Wild Speculation

The summer is over, which means Survivor is back! Before the first episode on September 18th, I’ll do what I’ve been doing all New Era and take a look at the cast photos, subsequent video/interview content published about the castaways, and various trailers and interviews to speculate on who will go far, who will make a fool of themselves, and what twists and turns we might see.

MAKING JUDGEMENTS ON EVERY PLAYER BASED OFF THEIR OFFICIAL CBS CAST BIO IN ONE OR TWO SENTENCES

Teeny — Starting off with a super-superfan. Fantastic.

Rome — He’s gonna be forced to make so many video game analogies as the Esports commentator.

Anika — Immediate ick calling all your favorite Survivor player Queens… another wide-eyed superfan.

T.K. — I wonder how often/long he will keep his hair in the top puff.

Tiyana — She’s just a quirky fun-loving girl! Aloha!

Rachel — Maybe she’ll stand out a lot more to me on TV… not really sold.

Jon Lovett — I’ve heard he’s a celebrity, but I don’t know crap about Jon Lovett.

Genevieve — Seems like the most serious, least goofy person out here so far.

Gabe — It’s giving Jelinsky.

Kyle — He is his own biggest inspiration in his life. The ego-maxing is real.

Kishan — Thankfully this season’s gay Indian seems to be the opposite of Bhanu.

Sam — Our golden boy candidate for the season.

Andy — Will be annoyingly good or annoyingly bad at Survivor.

Sue — Basically a corpse compared to the age of the rest of this cast. Seems very eccentric.

Caroline — There’s always one white girl every season who’s incredibly forgettable. I don’t want it to be you Caroline but she doesn’t particularly stand out to me.

Aysha — There’s always one black girl every season who I feel like will be a strong player. I’m feeling really good about Aysha.

Sierra — Most likely to be my friend Titus’s favorite castaway (Titus has a type), but she’s very Tori Meehan coded so I will probably cheer for her too, unlike with Kenzie last season.

Sol — He has Sol Power! Just give him the million dollars already!

AFTER CONSUMING INTERVIEW CONTENT WHERE CASTAWAYS SPEAK ABOUT THEMSELVES AND THEIR GAME, HERE’S MY SPECULATIVE PRESEASON RANKINGS

Reminder: My preseason power rankings have never ever been wrong. My opinions are always right. Just take my word for it… do not look back at past preseason articles.

18. Gabe — My man Gabe is a tough sell for me. I think we will definitely see him try to rock the boat a bit and make some TV, but I’m a bit skeptical of this turning into a successful and long lasting game of Survivor. I think a burnout is in the cards, whether due to silly mistakes, or due to claiming a major blindside and being an easy target. I could absolutely see him on day one coming out the gate way too hard and earning the ire and distrust of his starting tribe.

17. Genevieve — It was hard for me to get a read on Genevieve, therefore it is difficult for confirm a long stay in the game. I think her assessment as a “bouncy” but also “moody” player makes me worried for her early game and her ability to fit in on day one. Maybe she’ll really gel with her tribe and find a strong alliance, but I’m leaning towards an early exit, where she possibly plays herself out of the game.

16. Sol — I’m not believing in the Sol Power, personally. There’s just something about his persona that’s off to me, and I feel like people will not see his bond building as particularly genuine. Despite saying he wants to build one-on-one relationships, he also sees himself playing Survivor with an emotionless, game-focused approach, which can come off as fake to the people in his tribe. There’s always one person that I am completely wrong on and it could be Sol, given how convinced I am that he’s gonna fall flat in Fiji.

15. Rachel — She seems to be opting into playing a very under-the-radar game. She identifies a lot with the strong-willed but quieter players who do a lot to navigate the middle ground of multiple alliances. Floating around is a successful strategy in Survivor, but I’m a bit skeptical that it’s going to work for Rachel. I worry that the pressure of the game may bring out a more controlling and paranoid side that could paint her as a weak link in the tribe and set up an early exit, or she is too reserved and doesn’t end up gaining good allies that want to protect her.

14. Jon — Apparently he’s a well-known political podcaster so if he is immediately recognized, will people use that as a reason to vote him out early? Hard to tell until we get on the show. As for Jon the castaway? He seems to have a good head on his shoulders and is content to let others take the lead and be more of the performative shield and face of his alliances. I also think Jon could simply get voted out really early as a physical weak link, given his dweeby appearance. No one in their cast photo projects less aura than Jon. Regardless of his finish, be ready to get a lot of Lovett out on the beach because he will probably get first crack at a narrator role for the season, which means a lot of confessionals.

13. Anika — She came off as a #bigmovez simp, very much in the vein of the Dee, Venus, J. Maya archetype of the strong, young, aggressive female strategist. But if she isn’t going to take the route of a willful villain like Venus did, then she has to walk the tightrope of commanding presence and respect like Dee, or else be consigned to quietly outcasted gamer like what happened to J. Maya. In the footsteps of Dee and Venus, I imagine people will be wary of her and I don’t envision a ton of success for Anika.

12. Caroline — I might be a Caroline stan for Survivor 47. I’m hoping Emily and her bluntness walked so that Caroline could run. I think she can see through everyone’s bullcrap and play a strong yet self-aware game, while giving some fire confessionals along the way. My only worry is that if her tribe starts slow she might be picked off early as a weaker physical player, which is why I begrudgingly rank her at this spot.

11. Teeny — There are a few super-superfans on this cast (basically if you talk about going out of your way to meet Survivor castaways in the real world or discuss your Rob Has a Podcast listening habits (or are a RHAP podcaster), you’re a super-superfan), and Teeny is one of them. What does this mean for them and their success on the show? I’m mixed on Teeny. I worry that Teeny may be one of those super-superfans who has all the knowledge and skills on the couch at home, but then on the beach when you’re hungry and barely sleeping, it just doesn’t translate. Will Teeny be able to find the social connections to build trustworthy alliances? I’m not too confident.

10. Rome — This man is either going to be a “Q-esque” tour de force of chaos, or he is going to be an incredibly fun castaway to laugh at for how bad he is playing. I don’t think there is a middle ground. Rome became a Survivor freak over the course of one year leading up to Survivor 47, and he has basically guaranteed that he is going to try some mind-boggling and borderline insane strategies out there on the beach. I highly doubt he’s going to be able to make it to the end, but I think his passion for the game will help him avoid an early exit and get him through the pre-merge, and then his over-the-top gaming will at least make him a good shield post-merge.

9. T.K. — Can T.K. rely on a strong social game to make it far in Fiji? The vibe I’m getting from him is that he is one of the least “superfan-ish” castaways on the season and is going to opt into playing more of a slower paced, traditional, alliance-based game of Survivor. I don’t imagine T.K. really looking to blindside anyone until the endgame, so he has to build trust early on to find the right allies, or risk finding himself outplayed and voted out of the game. But I think the more predictable energy T.K. gives off will make him a good ally and help him make a run through the first half of the season.

8. Sam — I think Sam’s Survivor journey comes down to how he’s stereotyped, and how hard he plays the game coming out of the gates. Sam certainly comes across as a charmer and a smooth-talker, and there’s a fear that people will immediately assume him to be a gamer and a threat to remove. If he clicks with his tribe early, I can absolutely see him going far, possibly championing a tight knit alliance with his starting tribe.

7. Sierra — She’s charming! She’s pretty! But is that going to be to her disadvantage? I think it’s possible that the stereotype of the “black widow” could be put onto her despite not coming off as deceptive, as she presented herself more as a well-meaning and “gullible” person. Dee’s win being fresh in the minds of the Survivor 47 cast may hurt Sierra as well, as she fits the archetype. Sierra needs a good start with her starting tribe to assure people that she is one to trust to go far, or else she could be an easy choice for a pre-merge boot. I think she just oozes charm, and that will at least be enough to get her past the merge.

6. Aysha — For someone who is coming into Survivor with a lot of knowledge on the show and a pedigree as “Survivor podcaster”, I think she is going to tackle the game smartly and with nuance. Aysha has certainly thought about playing the game with a conservative approach and focusing on relationships rather than being hyper-strategic. I think it could work out well for her, as long as she doesn’t get painted as a threat due to her hobby. I am not plugged into the Survivor podcast world at all (I don’t want my blog analysis too influenced by outside sources teehee) so I don’t know if she will be immediately outed as a Survivor fanatic. Andy and Teeny in their bio already mentioned they recognized her. Meanwhile, nobody mentioned that they recognized Jon Lovett, who is apparently an actual celebrity. What does this say about our cast?

5. Kyle — The van life guy should adapt pretty well to the conditions of the beach. Signs point to Kyle playing a laid back under the radar game, but will his desire to win the money for his family drive him to make big moves? I could see his game going a bit like “L I V I N” Cody (ironic that he really sees his gamestyle being like Jesse…) where I think his physical skills and laid back personality will have people downplay his threat level and allow him to move forward in the game. I just worry he may fall behind strategically given how fast paced Survivor is nowadays.

4. Sue — This is a true wildcard castaway. Sue is much older than everyone in the cast, but I think the free spirit she gives off and the uniqueness of who she is in this Survivor cast will make her a major draw for an alliance. Add on top of that that she expressed a great desire to play Survivor in a cutthroat and aggressive way, it may make her the star of the season. Or no one will take her seriously and she emotionally spirals and causes chaos… which would still make her the star of the season, just in a different way. If she starts on a successful tribe and avoids being voted out early for being old, I think she makes a deep run in the game.

3. Kishan — He’s gonna do well. Kishan comes off as smart, but aware of what works and what doesn’t work when navigating the game of Survivor. He also comes across as a dependent, but non-threatening ally who will likely get in the door in major alliances without being primed for a big blindside. I don’t really have much more to say. A lot of people say they want to play an under the radar game, but I think Kishan is the best suited to succeed with that strategy.

2. Andy — It’s clear once you look into Andy that nobody is going to be able to match his freak for Survivor. He is a very obsessed superfan who has not only the head knowledge for the game of Survivor, but also trained intensely, both physically and mentally, for the show. It’s Carson-esque, and while Carson was and is a polarizing character for his preparation (among other things), he did very well on his season. If Andy keeps his cool he should be able to be a dependent Survivor ally set up for a long stay. It’s not guaranteed though: I could see a world where the Reality TV obsessed fan in him decides to rock the boat and “make a name for himself”, or his perceived head knowledge blinds him in the game and he falls prey to a blindside.

1. Tiyana — She’s bringing the bubbly yet cutthroat personality that I think does really well on Survivor. Her sociable energy is the type that’s gonna draw people to her for early alliances, but stops short of being perceived as threatening. She compared herself to Tiffany from the previous season and I could see their games going similarly with a strong early and mid game. Then it will be up to Tiyana to use the “shields” she wants to bring with her to make it to the end.

FIVE HOT TAKES ON WHAT TO EXPECT FROM SEASON 47

Time for some predictions and feelings I have coming out of the Survivor preseason in more of a big picture, meta way.

1. MANY IDOLS will be PLAYED this season

So this cast hasn’t seen all of season 46… but they’ve seen enough to witness the lack of idol playing that was rampant in that season. In recent seasons, the pendulum has swung to where when people get idols, they often try to hold them for as long as possible. I predict this season we will see the trend break and we will watch at least three people play an idol to try to save themselves. Too many people have looked stupid holding an idol when they should have played it, so castaways may try to look a little less stupid by playing an idol when threatened, even if they didn’t end up requiring it. I think constant idol playing and recirculation is good for a Survivor season overall as it adds an air of unpredictability and uncertainty to the later votes.

2. The cast will be a bunch of TRY-HARDS

When I say try-hard, I mean people who are going to try really hard to play the ideal game of Survivor. Whether that is getting the perfect blindside on a trusted ally, or putting together a solid alliance that overcomes the tests of the season, or putting pride in themselves by always being on the right side of the votes. I can imagine ego about gameplay being a recurring vice for this cast, especially given the amount of “super-superfans” included in this cast who I’m sure will believe that they are doing Survivor perfectly even when they are not… which I’m sure will give us plenty of talking points as we travel on our Survivor 47 journey.

3. The strategy this season will be ALLIANCE FOCUSED with LESS BLINDSIDES

The season freshest in player’s minds is Survivor 45, where a strong four player alliance dominated the season, with all four members maintaining a case to win the million dollars over the others all the way to the endgame. A lot of these Survivor 47 castaways offered their social game as their “superpower” entering the season, so I think a lot of players when they hit the beach will look to form bonds with tribemates and ride with that group for as long as they can. This means that overly-strategic or chaotic players will paint targets on their back by standing out, and the calm, collected, trustworthy social savant Survivor castaway will be more than happy to exclude the wildcard from their midst. Looking into my crystal ball, I’m predicting that Survivor 47’s Qs and Venuses will find themselves out of the game a lot faster, rather than outlasting the odds as shields.

4. The show will LEAN INTO the drama and rivalries… but not too hard

Survivor 46 was a messy season for the better. There were organic rivalries and actual hatred between castaways, which made for some really entertaining television. In response to 46, I like to think that production will be more than happy to give us more of these juicy character relationships… but if you think this 47 cast is going to deliver at the same level, that may be wishful thinking. I think expecting similar chaos to 46 is unrealistic.

5. The show will NOT introduce NOTABLE new twists this season (sans the Sweat/Savvy overhaul)

My original prediction was that no new twists would be introduced this season, but Jeff already announced that the season premiere’s “Sweat and Savvy” twist is getting an overhaul. Jeff also mentioned in interviews that the Survivor Auction is returning, which will be nice to see as it was fun in Survivor 45. I will still stick with the prediction that the new day one twist will be the only “notable” change to the season. Production likes what they have with the three tribe format, the beware advantages, the journeys, the earn the merge, and the post-merge vote risking and rice negotiations. I think while some of the details of the advantages and the journey tasks may be different or unique, I don’t think the differences will be anything that shocks us. Expecting Survivor to give us something truly out of the box with the game format is expecting too much.

New season starts this Wednesday, and after a summer hiatus I plan to follow along with weekly recaps as I have the past few seasons (hopefully getting the posts out by Thursday evening). Excited as ever to see how Survivor 47 goes down!