Another episode of Survivor is in the books! Just as things were starting to look dire, we got a HUGE blindside in the best episode of the season. Let’s dive in!
The “Bland Widow Brigade” Tries to Coast to the Finish
The Kyle vote officially drew the line in the sand between the “underdog alliance” and the threats, and the gap between the two parties continued to grow. The women of the underdog alliance bought in even more to their alliance and essentially locked in their plan of action: systematically eliminate Sam and Genevieve, boot Andy out at five, and bring an all-women alliance to the final four to duke it out for the title of Sole Survivor. Caroline is happy with having her bond with Sue and managing her quiet but strong position in the game. Teeny believes their resume is the best amongst the alliance and laughs at the idea of blindsiding an ally. Rachel feels all that’s left for her to do is pull on the puppet strings and hold her group of girls together, and she isn’t intimidated by the honeyed words of Sam or Genevieve.
I find it very interesting that this alliance of “underdogs” has been subverted to become the ones we are meant to cheer against, while the “threats” are the ones who really end up being the underdogs. There’s something alluring about Survivor players who take big risks and make their mark in the game, and for this “Bland Widow Brigade” their good fortune just seemed to materialize out of thin air, and all they need to do was stick to the convenient plan and vote the most obvious castaways out. The successful path to the end for the underdog alliance involves no twists and turns — not the normal story for a Survivor underdog. This is only reinforced further by the fact that everyone in the group feels they are on equal footing resume-wise. None of them see the other as more deserving of the million dollars, hence the ability to sit around all kumbaya and stroke each other’s ego rather than shake things up with a blindside, because of course the jury will agree that I played the best game of the four. Teeny, Caroline, and Rachel all believe that they played a better game than the other two, while Sue is just happy to be included.
That attitude and their safe gameplay ends up biting them in the butt. The four girls stayed at camp while the “threats” and Andy were enjoying the reward, and that time was spent affirming to each other that they all want an all-female final four. They didn’t expect Andy to do anything other than preserve himself by sticking with their group., but it turns out Andy had bigger plans.
Holding Space for Operation Italy
Sam wins the reward challenge and brings a surprised Andy and his new friend Genevieve with him to the Sanctuary, where good things happen, for some Italian food and letters from home. There’s nothing better than some strategy after a good meal, and boy were people cooking. It’s Andy who leads the charge by proposing “Operation Italy”, and Sam and Genevieve, who need whatever lifeline they can get, are all in to make the gambit work.
Andy, contrary to what the tribe thinks of him, is itching to change Survivor 47 and make a game-defining move, but even if he were to flip on his alliance, the numbers would still be against him three to four. Therefore, Andy needs to get the underdog alliance to believe that there’s an idol in play and agree to split the vote, with the assumption that Andy is with them as the fifth vote. If Andy is voting for the “primary target” who gets three votes, then he is perfectly positioned to flip his vote to his ideal target and give him, Sam, and Genevieve the edge.
The logic is sensible and nothing revolutionary to the Survivor meta, but the most impressive part of Operation Italy is the buy-in to the preparation and execution. The trio leaves the reward all with tasks to complete, and I highly expect that the underdog alliance would never have suspected a larger plan as committed as this to arrive on their doorstep. Sam’s role is to play dead to the majority alliance, giving the group little reason to vote him out ahead of Genevieve or to think something is up. Genevieve’s role is to bluff hard that she has an idol, and this includes making a fake (using the idol Sam had but didn’t use before the merge, what a callback) that she can use to keep the ruse alive and maintain the focus on her. Andy’s role is to give the underdog alliance confidence that he is with them and then push the alliance to split the vote to protect themselves for Genevieve’s idol. The trio enact the plan to the letter, even when their initial target Rachel wins the immunity challenge and they have to change the vote to Caroline.
There were a lot of ways this could go bad. What if the Bland Widow Brigade doesn’t believe Genevieve has an idol? There would be no need to split the vote. What if Teeny pushes so hard for Sam that they abandon the vote split? A possibility, but after Teeny was flashed the fake for a split second there was no doubt in Teeny’s mind that Genevieve needed to be taken out in this vote if possible. What if Andy pushed people too hard to make the underdogs change their plan, or what if Sue played her idol against Caroline, or what if Rachel ignores Andy’s counsel in favor of her own? The what ifs mounted up, but the threat trio stuck to their guns, and everything went exactly as they intended. Caroline went home shocked, only expecting a courtesy vote or two, and Survivor 47 was flipped completely on its head.
The plucky trio of Andy, Sam, and Genevieve took advantage of the overconfidence from the Bland Widow Brigade, whose predictable voting plan became exploitable. Rachel, Caroline, Teeny, and Sue were so focused on ensuring their final four that they did not expect Andy to be as slick as he was. They assumed Andy was a goat who just wanted to be on the right side of the vote, and played along with Andy’s insistence for a split because they understood the logic, but more likely because they wanted to appease him and keep him happy for when they cut him out of the alliance later on. In reality, Andy had already broken out of the box the underdog alliance had put him in, and for that they paid dearly.
The Big Shakeup Survivor 47 Needed Actually Happens
Last week, I was worried the ending of Survivor 47 would be dull if the underdog alliance cleaned ship and Rachel ran away with the victory. This huge blindside of Caroline changes everything. Andy has made a game-defining move that vaults him into the winner conversation. Genevieve now can find a legitimate path to make it to the end and make her case to the jury. Rachel still has two advantages to use to regain control of her game. Sam can sneak his way into the final three easier. Teeny can’t coast to the end of the game anymore. Sue is a free agent in need of a new number one. Everyone has to scramble and earn their spot at final tribal council, which should make for a dramatic and highly anticipated finale. I’ve thought of five unanswered questions that will need to be resolved on the path to Survivor 47’s winner:
- Is the Andy-Genevieve-Sam Alliance Endgame?
Was Operation Italy a bonding experience for the trio, or a one-time agreement? There are only a few days left so it might mean the people you work with are the people you are stuck with. But there’s an elephant in the room… all three of these castaways are now “threats”, and do you really want to be sitting in the end with a big threat?
If they do stick together, the numbers are still three to three, which means there will be a rock draw, an idoling out, or a flipper in the midst to break the deadlock.
2. How does Rachel Use Her Advantages?
Now that Rachel can no longer play her ideal “under the radar” game, she has to reassess her plan of attack against other threatening players. Rachel made a 900 IQ move to bid on the basket of fries at the auction, because of course an advantage would be hiding there, and now it is inevitable that she has to use it in the next two votes to light her path to a Survivor 47 victory.
Another big question mark: does Rachel publicize her idol? Telling people about an idol has become a shaky strategy as of late, but it is a tempting move in order to throw some uncertainty into proceedings. And if she uses it at the final six successfully, how can she survive the final five without winning the immunity challenge?
3. What Happens Between Rachel and Andy?
The biggest relational question mark entering the final six is how the up and down roller coaster journey between Andy and Rachel concludes. Will she reconcile with Andy, who she had underestimated as a threat to win all season, and go after Genevieve like they have wanted to? Or does she stick with her ladies and go to war against the Operation Italy agents?
4. Who Wins the Next Immunity?
Can’t forget this! Someone is going to avoid sweating out this next vote and be able to set up their moves for the final five and beyond. Given what we’ve seen in these past few challenges, I expect the favorite to be Rachel and Sam, with Andy and Sue as long shots to win depending on what the immunity is. Rachel winning the next immunity makes her path to the end much easier and will screw up a lot of plans.
5. What About Sue and Teeny?
Does the massive failure of the underdog alliance change the gameplans of the castaways who are falling behind? Who does Sue vote with now that she can no longer lean on Caroline to make decisions for her. Does Teeny flip sides try to rock the boat?
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Weirdest Overreaction: Teeny Getting Heated at Sam for his Reward Choices (a.k.a Not Teeny)
It’s kind of crazy that Teeny made such a big deal about not being picked for reward by Sam under the perception that Sam should be trying to wine and dine them for a vote, especially given that it seemed pretty clear all episode that Teeny has no desire to break away from the women’s alliance. It was giving entitlement… but the honest assessment is that it was giving hangry. We probably underestimate how hunger affects some of these interactions. But also, maybe Teeny just loves Italian food?
The Housecat Possum Award: Genevieve
Maybe Andy was always going to try to flip against his former alliance, but I think one of the factors that helped his motivations was Genevieve finding his way back to him to grovel and apologize for calling him a goat earlier in the game. Genevieve compared herself to multiple animals to illustrate her new strategy in the game: looking harmless and staying quiet… though I don’t know if loudly bluffing an immunity idol, then succeeding with Sam and Andy in Operation Italy does a good job in acting like a Survivor dead housecat, or harmless possum, or whatever.
Biggest Philosophical Debate: What Makes this a 2-Part Finale?
I just have a lot of questions of what this 2-part finale means… mainly because it’s spread out over two episodes over two weeks… which is just like how normal episodes are. Obviously they must be splitting up the final couple votes for better pacing… does this mean one vote is super involved… or will one vote be super fast? Will we get a cliffhanger at the end of part one? Will there actually be any differences? Is this just to avoid a long three-hour episode at the end of the season by having two, two-hour episodes? Is there gonna be a new, big twist?
MVP of the Episode: Andy
This is Andy’s big move and he should get his laurels for taking a big risk. All the episodes of set-up of Andy building relationships and hiding in plain sight and wanting to be seen as a serious player have finally paid off.
Goat of the Episode: Teeny
There is egg all over Teeny’s face this episode for throwing all support in the underdog alliance, only to be blindsided and sent back to the bottom of the totem pole. There’s little left for Teeny to do to be seriously considered as a possible winner, a long way away from Teeny’s own previous declaration that they are actually a favorite to win.
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PLAYER TIER LIST:
OUT OF THE GAME
18. Jon
17. T.K.
16. Aysha
15. Kishan
14. Anika
13. Rome
12. Tiyana
11. Sierra
10. Sol
9. Gabe
8. Kyle
7. Caroline
NO CHANCE TO WIN
6. Sue
Sue will likely be sitting in the final tribal council as a goat, and nothing’s going to happen to change that. But she is still a wildcard that can affect the game as her vote is now for sale, given she cannot just follow whatever Caroline wants to do, and she still has her idol.
SO YOUR SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE…
5. Teeny
It would take some true heroics to build a winning case from here. I’m not gonna say it’s impossible because I am confident that Teeny will not play the rest of the Survivor season passively and try to make some sort of big play. I just doubt that anything Teeny does will be able to leapfrog what people further on the list have already achieved.
CHANCE TO WIN
4. Sam
He’s not the flashy pick or the first pick, but golden boy Sam certainly has a non-zero chance of winning the season right now. If he can persevere through his time being on the bottom, I think he can make a case to win with a jury that could skew positive for him. He played the game with much of the jury without being the cold and calculating presence Genevieve was, which may have earned him some good favor.
3. Genevieve
On paper Genevieve has a dominant strategic resume, likely the best and most complete in the game, and it’s clear that she is focusing now on rehabilitating her reputation as an emotionless player to heal some wounds and bitterness towards her that may be present in the jury. But there’s the issue of just making it to the end. I can’t imagine she is not seen as a top target in these last two votes. However, if she does play possum well enough to get to the final three, she has a fantastic case to win the season.
2. Andy
How will the success of Operation Italy affect Andy’s game? One thing is for sure: he’s officially in the winner conversation. Andy just has to avoid becoming the number one target and lock in a final three fast to survive these last two votes. It probably requires hitching your wagon to Genevieve and Sam, which is a final three group is certainly not a guaranteed victory.
1. Rachel
She is no longer the runaway favorite to win Survivor 47. In fact, I’d say Rachel has some work to do to be considered a worthy winner. Being under-the-radar is not impressive anymore given how this last vote just played out. But Rachel has an idol and a Block-a-Vote, which gives her the tools to respond with her own signature move and regain the top spot in the game. I like Rachel’s chances of throwing a strong counterpunch.
And because it looks like I am not making a winner’s pick before the so-called “two part finale” (please give me one more episode to make it official) I will declare that while my brain says Rachel still is most likely, my heart and my winner pick is going to have to be Andy. I think he’s made the big move to impress the jury and he has the best zero-to-hero final tribal council story. I also think Rachel and Genevieve will higher priority targets in the last two votes. Plus, I just like Andy and his unserious energy, and he would be a weird and fun winner in my eyes.
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How will the fallout of Operation Italy change the game? Find out next week!