Survivor 46 Preseason Power Rankings — First Impressions and Wild Speculation
After the short midseason break, Survivor 46 is so so close to being back. Before the first episode starts on February 28th, I’m gonna take a look at the cast photos, subsequent video/interview content published about the castaways, and various trailers and interviews to speculate on who will go far, who will make a fool of themselves, and what twists and turns we might see.
MAKING JUDGEMENTS ON EVERY PLAYER BASED OFF THEIR OFFICIAL CBS CAST BIO IN ONE OR TWO SENTENCES
Ben — Those overalls do not work… why do they look so weird
Bhanu — You bet your bottom dollar Survivor will milk his backstory for all he’s got.
Charlie — You think if you hurt both your femurs running that you would make the economic decision to retire, but to each his own.
David Jelinsky — This guy is certainly a big personality
Hunter — He builds Survivor challenges as a hobby… uh oh, real nerd alert
Jem — Will someone mistake her for being Indian on the show? Would Survivor even show that if it happened?
Jess — I think playing the game like a combo of Tai, Gabby, and Maryanne is a recipe for a mess
Kenzie — Filling our quirky heavily tattooed lady quota for the season
Liz — Sorry Liz, I think you might be the most annoying contestant this season… sorry that was a bit mean…. The self-lovey inspirational tone of the bio just isn’t my vibe
Maria — She had three babies the old-fashioned way…. Serious boss bitch vibes (hence her comparison to Drea and Natalie)
Moriah — Fairly un-opinionated on her. Basic white girl.
Q — This guy feels like someone who’s going to do way too much strategically and get himself voted out…. A lot of risk-taking talk
Randen — I’m just a bit confused by him. It just seems weird that a 41 year old wants to play a Xander game.
Soda — Season 42. In fact, she’s like if you showed ChatGPT Season 42 and ask it to generate a Survivor castaway based on the season.
Tevin — Becoming an actor because Whitney Houston died is quite the origin story. He’s the guy screaming when he got his buff in the teaser trailer.
Tiffany — The chaos meter is reading off the charts
Tim — This is by far the most extra bio I’ve read here. And the most shocking thing here is that he picked Shamar as the player he wants to play like.
Venus — Imagine willingly comparing yourself to Regina George, the mean girl in mean girls. Also, she looks exactly like someone who would be named Venus.
AFTER CONSUMING INTERVIEW CONTENT WHERE CASTAWAYS SPEAK ABOUT THEMSELVES AND THEIR GAME, HERE’S MY SPECULATIVE PRESEASON RANKINGS
Reminder: My preseason power rankings have never ever been wrong. My opinions are always right. Just take my word for it… do not look back at past preseason articles.
18. Maria — She is the oldest player on the season and I worry that it will resign her to a very early exit. My feeling is that Maria will not play into the “mother” role on her tribe due to being the oldest and will come off more like a teacher or coach (as parent coach is a real life job for her). I don’t think people want to live on an island with their coach.
17. Liz — Using the power of silly to win Survivor is certainly a tagline. Liz is unabashedly herself, but I worry that her “brand” she is selling won’t be bought by her tribemates. She feels like an easy consensus first vote to me.
16. Bhanu — It’s tough to rate Bhanu without falling to the stereotype the show has put him in. He’s the “I actually grew up in the jungle” guy this season a la Survivor 41’s Naseer. He’s also the goofy free-spirit zen and meditation guy a la Sifu from Survivor 45. Both these character archetypes combined does not make me feel Bhanu will be playing the game for too long, and that is only exacerbated by his interviews which paint him as a non-strategic player whose game longevity will be dependent on if an alliance wants to bring him along for the ride.
15. Tim — I didn’t understand who the heck this person was at first when reading his bio. Then I watched his interview and realized that he is just a dad-himbo. A dimbo, if I may. He’s just earnestly goofy. For that reason, I think he lasts a few episodes. But his desire to play an incredibly aggressive game paired with what I don’t see as a dangerous Survivor skill set means I think Tim meets his demise early.
14. Jelinsky — This guy will certainly have plenty of strategies up his sleeve, as he seems to be a super-superfan within this cast. The big question mark for him is if he will be able to get people to follow his plans. He’s one of the youngest people on this cast and I don’t think he has the presence to get older players to buy into his vision, like Carson was able to do in Survivor 44. I can’t really pin down how his personality will translate on the island. He could be the most popular person on the beach or turn everyone against him. I’m betting more on the latter
13. Randen — I think his family will have to wait at least a few extra days before throwing him his “Voted out of Survivor” party. While he claims to be socially awkward from his interviews I actually found him to be down-to-earth and pretty easy to get along with. I think all he has to do is start a dialogue with some more sociable people and he can at least get someone on his side and last a little while. However, I think that will only take him so far and his less developed strategic background on the game might leave him out to dry… I love Carolyn like the next person, but to think she played the best game in modern Survivor like Randen does is a warning flag for me.
12. Jem — There’s usually one castaway that plays too hard at the start of the game and gets their comeuppance when the merge hits. Jem is my pick for that, as she seems the most likely to try to impose her will on the game while lacking the subtlety to keep herself from being an obvious target.
11. Q — This cast has fit people, but few athletes. Q is the only true athlete of the cast as a former SEC football player and I would not be surprised if he comes under fire as an individual immunity threat. That could work for Q to become a “shield” in the game, but I get the feeling Q also likes to be in charge, which makes me believe he could be a candidate for an early merge exit.
10. Kenzie, Queen of Woke — My initial read was that Kenzie fits the younger Carolyn or Survivor 45’s Kendra archetype as a quirky tattooed girl. Once I saw her video I immediately felt Parvati vibes as she came off flirty and a social butterfly. After some digestion, what Kenzie really feels like is a more extroverted Cassidy from Survivor 43… and in terms of gameplay I wouldn’t be surprised if her game was a louder version of Cassidy’s. Present in a lot of strategic machinations, but doesn’t get the clout or respect as a true strategist or gamechanger. And I don’t think Kenize will take that lying down. She will certainly push for her agenda.
9. Ben — My reasoning for ranking Ben as high as I did might feel a bit weird. Because I don’t think he’ll be much of a strategist, or really try to make any #bigmovez. I think Ben is the ideal alliance member because he just exudes “reliable follower”. He won’t do anything to win, and he won’t do anything to make you lose. He feels like a worse version of L I V I N Cody. Therefore I predict Ben is part of a good alliance, does his spiritual rocker schtick, and bows out of the game as an easy final nine or eight vote.
8. Moriah — The award for most seemingly normal person on this cast goes to Moriah. I’m a bit conflicted on where to place her, however. On one hand, she is banking on a perfect social strategy where everyone wants to go to her with plans and strategies, and I am feeling like she could just end up lost in a bunch of non-alliances that send her home pre-merge. On the other hand, I look at her starting tribe and can’t really imagine a scenario where the people who are trying to run the game don’t look to pick her up as an ally. The wildcard for me in all of this is how much she will be perceived as a nerd and if it will affect her ability to hold power positions in the game.
7. Soda — The biggest surprise for me when developing preseason rankings for Survivor 46 is how well I rate Soda now. She at first felt clearly typecast in the new Maryanne “uber-positive strong black woman” and that clearly did not work for the last Maryanne archetype Morriah, who was the first boot of Survivor 43. But I started changing my tune when she compared what she sees her game going like more to Survivor 43’s Karla. Soda feels like someone who, like Karla, could get a good grip of the social game very early and ride that wave to a deep run in Survivor 46. I also think she is starting on a fantastic tribe for her. I am already hoping for this season’s “Reba 4” to be the “Nami 4” with Soda, Tevin, Hunter, and Venus.
6. Jess — She is very Gabby from David vs Goliath coded, maybe more than any new era contestant to come into the game. What differs her from Gabby however is that she feels she is really a Fabio-type player. Gabby didn’t have much chill while she played Survivor, so could Jess be a more relaxed, possibly stronger version of her? I think she could.
5. Tevin — He feels like the person Survivor is trying to set up as the big personality of the season… because Tevin indeed has a huge personality to offer. He’s the type of guy that people will want to have in their alliance for the vibes. The one thing that gives me pause with Tevin is that I see Tevin as someone who has a little more ego than past cult of personality castaways (like Maryanne or Carolyn) and will not be a particularly observant player. I think Tevin will be viewing the dynamics of the game the way Tevin wants to see it. He also in his bio video referred to himself in the third person not one, but twice. That video is less than a minute long… raises some red flags for me.
4. Venus — Is this the spiritual successor to Dee? Young, independent, attractive woman looking to play an aggressive strategic game of Survivor in honor of her immigrant parents… could lightning strike twice? It all comes down to if Venus can break down some social walls early in the game and find some allies willing to work with her. If she does, then she can play with the freedom to manipulate and backstab as she desires, without the emotional baggage Dee had to dump at the climax of Survivor 45.
3. Charlie — Every season there is a player whose presence makes him or her a reliable alliance member or “central hub” for the social game of the season. Charlie is my pick to be that castaway this season, as he just exudes a great mix of reliability and smarts that I feel is missing from a lot of this cast.
2. Hunter — This man knows ball. I got the feeling that amongst this cast of superfans, Hunter probably has the best read on what it takes to play a strong game of Survivor. While building Survivor challenges at home is a bit of an ick for me, I can get past it with Hunter because he primarily uses the challenges he builds for kid camps and the like (instead of Carson, who used them for personal training). As long as he doesn’t show his cards as a threat too early I imagine Hunter makes a deep run in Survivor 46.
1. Tiffany — My number one spot goes to Tiffany. I feel Tiffany has the strategic gusto of Survivor 41’s Shan, who was a dominant force on that season, but with better emotional intelligence. If Tiffany can manage allies well, I think she could dictate the pace of Survivor 46 and get what she wants when she wants.
FOUR HOT TAKES ON WHAT TO EXPECT FROM SEASON 46
This is a section for me to ruminate on the talking points, hot takes, and feelings I have coming out of the Survivor preseason in more of a big picture, meta way.
1. Survivor 46 will try to Milk More out of the BACKSTORIES this Season
I was binge watching through the most recent season of The Challenge on the MTV app, where commercials are frequent, long, and unavoidable. One commercial that appeared repeatedly was the trailer for Survivor 46, which primarily shows the cast member audition tapes with this introspective and inspirational music in the background. It may be folly to overanalyze Survivor’s promotional trailer. Survivor trailers are just not very good at hyping up seasons because they adamantly decide to show zero gameplay footage and are basically nothingness word salads of castaways telling you they love Survivor. But I predict that because the show made the choice to lean in with casting videos as promotional content, they think the draw for Survivor 46 will specifically be how their characters live their life outside the show. Note also that the show filmed this season for sixty minute episodes and not ninety minute episodes like last season… and to me the easiest way to eat screentime when you are unsure if the tape you have is worth showing, is to just have the castaway spend 5 minutes talking about themselves outside of Survivor, and how the game is changing them, blah blah blah etcetera etcetera.
I already don’t like the overly inspirational backstory focus the new era has done the past few seasons, and I am a bit worried that the show will lean into it even more to fill time this season for the ninety minute episodes. Just about every castaway in their bios led off with some version of “I had a rough childhood”, “I come from dysfunctional parents”, “I was bullied as a kid”… it only compounds my worries that we will be backstory heavy this season.
2. The cast will be the most POLARIZING of the New Era
There’s an inevitable point we reach every preseason where the fans get antsy for the new season to drop and the negativity starts to flow a bit. One thing that exacerbates it is having to see all the Jeff Probst interviews where he repeatedly shows us that as a showrunner, he’s out of touch with what the people want. The other thing that has been boiling, unique to this season, is the reddit discourse around the amount of castaways who already have their merch stores ready to go before the season even starts. It caused a bit of waves before Survivor 44 when Carson had begun shilling merch in the preseason: it’s more like a tsunami this season. Could this reflect the type of cast we’ve gotten for Survivor 46? Is this a group that is going to be “managing the brand” every episode? Will we have a cast where everyone is trying to be the hero, or trying to be the next Carolyn?
I do think it’s possible. Is it a bad thing? Maybe… maybe not. The best casts in reality TV in general are the ones where you have an opinion on everyone involved. A few of these castaways may come off as annoying, or as fake, or like they are coming down with “main character fever”. But if they are generating an opinion out of you, then they are doing the job they need to, and the season is better off for it.
The worst case scenario is that because everyone’s the hero, no one wants to look like the villain therefore we get a very kumbaya and conflict-adverse season. The better scenario is that we see a lot of people who think they are in charge when they are actually playing an awful game, because then I can lightly poke fun at them in my weekly recaps.
3. We will see another “Reba 4” POWER ALLIANCE
A sneaky interesting aspect of the modern Survivor is the filming schedule and the fact Survivor 46 is not influenced by the result of Survivor 45, but of Survivor 44. If you are unaware, seasons are filmed back to back, and then one airs in the fall and the other airs in the spring. Both the cast of 45 and 46 are influenced by the ending of the last season they could watch (44) and it is intriguing to see if both seasons play out the same in a big picture strategic perspective.
The most influential strategy heading into both of these seasons is the “golden trio” of the Tika Three, where three charismatic castaways stuck together through thick and thin and dominated the season, all reaching the final four. Survivor 45’s response was a game-wide focus on tribal alliances, with a dominant “Reba Four” achieving similar success to the Tika Three. My prediction is that we get a similar dominant OG tribe alliance in Survivor 46, attempting to follow in the footsteps of its pioneers. Whether it succeeds or fails is another story. It will be hard to recreate the “under the radar” energy that the Tika Three thrived because everyone will be looking out for it. The Reba Four responded by taking charge of the game and stomping out the opposition, rather than staying silent and playing off of opposing alliances. Will the next iteration that forms in Survivor 46 do the same?
4. We get the most impactful TRIBE SWAP of the New Era
Survivor has quietly reintroduced the tribe swap to the New Era. In all of new school Survivor, it was basically a given that the pre-merge tribes would get a reshuffle at some point, with certain seasons going as far as having two tribe swaps before the merge. With the new era, production did away with the classic twist for three seasons, maybe believing it unnecessary with the 26-day shortening or just out of a desire to experiment a bit. Survivor 44 swapped individual castaways in a summit twist — a soft reboot. Then in Survivor 45, production reintroduced the traditional tribe swap.
The tribe swap exists for two primary reasons — to even out the teams if one tribe is dominating the other in challenges, and to keep castaways on their toes strategically and force them to make new alliances. The ultimate impact of the Survivor 45 tribe swap was minimal, as OG tribe alliances pretty much got back together at the merge. My bold prediction is that 1) Survivor 46 will swap tribes and 2) the resulting tribe swap will have a huge impact on the game. Either some big shot who was riding high will get shockingly eliminated or certain castaways will create new alliances and override whoever they were with before.
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New season starts Wednesday, February 28th, and I plan to follow along with weekly recaps as I have the past few seasons. Excited to see how it all goes down!